by Victor Korir
DC + Biv Poisson
τ=0.13 ρ=0.10 60+ Leagues
Inputs
📊 Results
🏆 Bet Summary
⚡ EV Finder
📐 FAQ
⚽ League Average Goals
Advanced — Select League or Override
Using defaults: Home 1.50  |  Away 1.20  (toggle Advanced to change)
📋 Full Match — Team Statistics
TeamGames PlayedGoals ScoredGoals Conceded
Calculating...
💡 How To Use OddsBreaker

Step 1 — Full Match Stats: Enter both team names, the number of games played (last 6–15 recommended), total goals scored and goals conceded for that period.

Step 2 — 1st Half Stats (Optional): Tap the [+ 1st Half Stats] button to reveal the half-time inputs. Enter goals scored & conceded in the 1st half only. 2nd half values are automatically calculated as Full Time minus 1st Half — no extra entry needed.

Step 3 — League Averages: By default, Home avg = 1.50 and Away avg = 1.20 goals/match. Toggle Advanced if you want to override these for a specific league (e.g. EPL, Serie A).

Step 4 — Calculate: Hit ⚡ Calculate Predictions. Your most likely score, confidence meter, and all market probabilities will be generated across all tabs.

Step 5 — EV Finder: Navigate to the EV Finder tab and enter bookmaker odds to instantly identify positive expected value (+EV) bets.

New Match: Press the subtle ⊕ NEW button above the team statistics table to clear all fields and start fresh.

📊

Enter team data on the Inputs tab and press Calculate.

🏆

Enter team data on the Inputs tab and press Calculate.

⚡

Calculate predictions first, then enter bookmaker odds to find value bets.

📐 Methodology & FAQ
What model does OddsBreaker use?
OddsBreaker uses the Dixon-Coles model with True Bivariate Poisson — the exact summation formula. DC corrects underestimation of low-scoring results (0–0, 1–0, 0–1, 1–1). Bivariate Poisson accounts for score correlation between both teams.
How are λ (expected goals) calculated?
Attack Rating = Goals Scored/MP ÷ League Avg. Defence Rating = Goals Conceded/MP ÷ opponent's league avg (cross-division). λH = AttH × DefA × lgH. Home/away asymmetry is captured purely by lgH vs lgA.
What is True Bivariate Poisson?
P(X=x, Y=y) = Σk [ Poisson(k,λ₃) × Poisson(x−k,λ₁−λ₃) × Poisson(y−k,λ₂−λ₃) ] where λ₃ = ρ√(λH·λA). This exactly models positive score correlation — open games tend to produce goals for both sides. ρ=0.10 is the default.
What are the default league averages?
Home = 1.50, Away = 1.20 goals/match. Toggle Advanced on the Inputs tab to select a specific country and league — 35 countries and 60+ leagues available, based on 2024/25 season data.
Ideal Dixon-Coles τ (Tau)?
τ = 0.13 is recommended for multi-league use. Provides balanced correction for low-scoring scorelines without over-weighting them.
What about Half Time & 2nd Half?
HT league averages = 43% of full-match averages; 2H = 57%. 2nd half goals are auto-derived as Full Time minus 1st Half. Half-period models are independent — refer to Full Match for final result accuracy.
What is the EV Finder?
EV% = (Model Prob × Bookie Odds − 1) × 100. Positive EV = bookmaker offering above fair value. Margin-adjusted EV corrects for bookmaker overround — a more realistic measure of true edge.
Disclaimer
OddsBreaker Pro is a research and statistical tool. Predictions are probabilistic — not guarantees. Please bet responsibly. — by Victor Korir